市场人士预计，目前新年度国家对棉花补贴预计将无下限，
郑棉跌破万四关口
昨日，郑棉152 0173 3840合约大幅回落，开盘于14210元/吨，收盘于14905元/吨，较前一交易日跌345元/吨，跌幅2.42%，成交量大幅增加，由202688手增至483108手，持仓量增加42826手至446524手。外盘方面，美
而8月4日以来，152 0173 3840合约自五年低位14010元绝地反弹，一度六连阳。不过，在多次上攻15000元/吨整数关口过程中，多头渐渐失去信心，8月14日，该合约上探至14980元后便震荡走低，并多次领衔国内商品跌势，连续第四个月收阴。而此间洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货止跌企稳，主力12月合约8月份累计上涨5.89%。
另据文华财经报道，受进口棉价格低廉的冲击，以及消费端萎靡窘境影响，自2013年11月28日启动的储备棉投放进展情况不佳，即便中棉协4月起将标准级棉竞卖底价由18000元/吨下调至17250元/吨，成交率仍不甚乐观。随着抛储结束及新棉上市时间节点的靠近，5月下旬开始，储备棉成交比例基本维持在20%下方，甚至存在个别交易日跌落至个位数的尴尬局面。
不过，庞大的库存依然震慑着多头。国家棉花市场监测系统预计，2014/2015年度国内棉花期末库存消费比为177.15%，创历史*高。中储棉总公司消息显示，2011年以来累计收储棉花1640多万吨，年均储备棉作业量达820多万吨。
“直补”被解读为偏空
本周国内棉花市场将正式进入2014/2015年度，而新年度新疆棉花目标价格补贴试点的实施细则尚未公布，多头尤其忐忑不安。据悉，当前的传闻内容相比之前更为一致，目前新年度国家对棉花补贴预计将无下限，郑棉下方并无政策支撑。
来自中国棉花信息网的消息，从侧面反映了部分细则内容正在逐步浮现。
**，新疆兵团的棉花补贴将按照产量为基准，新疆自治区则60%按照面积、40%按照产量。其次，财政补贴的额度暂时没有设置明确上限的说法，但总补贴额度将根据棉花产量来进行测算。再次，在托底价格方面，传言有多种版本。但多数认为，在对市场的调控过程中国家为了提高政策的有效性，更倾向于让市场在资源配置中起决定性作用，随行就市，政府不会轻易过早介入市场。内外棉价差和棉农的卖棉难将成为政府考虑出手的前提条件。第四，9月至11月份期间将是目标价格补贴实施过程中的
现货市场上，来自山东的相关棉花企业负责人介绍，目前，距新棉大面积上市愈来愈近。与国储棉成本高、质量差、抛售难形成鲜明反差的是，新棉凭借其质量佳、价格低等优势备受纺企青睐。尽管如此，储备棉投放成交谨慎的特点，同样传导到市场对新棉的收购方面。在棉花目标价格公布前，棉企、轧花厂、纺织企业等棉市各主体普遍持观望态度，不敢贸然开秤。
不过也有人士表示，不管后期公布的直补细则到底采取哪种模式，预计还会有相互扶持的政策细则以完善直补政策。在抛储结束后的“真空期”，郑棉盘面或许会呈现短暂的上冲动能，涉棉企业可实时关注，以抓住合适的卖保时机。
编者按：今年国家正式启动东北和内蒙古大豆、新疆棉花目标价格补贴试点，迈出了我国农产品定价机制改革破冰的关键一步。另据了解，广西和云南的蔗糖，湖北省等主产区的油菜籽，有望将成为棉花和大豆之后实行目标价格补贴试点的两类农产品。眼下，棉花、大豆成熟在即，相关目标价格补贴试点的具体实施细则却迟迟未落地，因不确定性因素导致的各种传言在市场中飞舞，“心里没谱”的人们将目光转向预示价格风向的期货市场。
Because the market has not yet been released direct subsidy rules as bearish, yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures 152 0173 3840 main contract Powei down, hit a low of the past five years.
Market participants expect the new year, at present state of cotton subsidies is expected to be no lower limit, Zheng cotton under no policy support; in addition to the global cotton for fourth consecutive years of excess supply, and China forming massive inventory, make Zheng cotton downward pressure is great.
Zheng Mian Wan Si pass below
Yesterday, Zheng cotton 152 0173 3840 contract fell sharply, opened at 14210 yuan / ton, to close at 14905 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day down 345 yuan / ton, a decline of 2.42%, turnover increased substantially, from 202688 to 483108 hand in hand, positions increased 42826 to 446524 hand in hand. Outer disc, American cotton last Friday fell slightly, the December contract closed at 66.47 cents, to close at 66.57 cents, down 1 cents, or 0.02%.
And since August 4th, 152 0173 3840 contract since the five year low of 14010 yuan to reemerge, once the sixth yang. However, many times in the upside of the 15000 yuan / ton mark integer process, long losing confidence, in August 14th, the agreement on the exploration to 14980 yuan after the concussion, and several leading domestic goods for fourth consecutive months of decline, overcast. And here is the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures to stabilize stabilized, the main contract in December August rose a cumulative 5.89%.
According to another Mandarin financial reports, the imported cotton prices low impact, and consumer end slump dilemma, since November 28, 2013 to start the reserve cotton on the progress of poor, even CCTA April onwards will be the standard grade cotton auction reserve price by 18000 yuan / ton down to 17250 yuan / ton, to pay rate is still not very optimistic. With the near end and throwing storage Xinmian listing time node, starting in late May, cotton reserves turnover ratio maintained at below 20%, even the existence of individual trading day to drop to a number of embarrassing situation.
However, the huge inventories still stunned the bull. Expected national cotton market monitoring system, 2014/2015 annual domestic cotton ending inventory consumption ratio is 177.15%, the highest. The store cotton Corporation news shows, since 2011 the cumulative and annual about 16400000 tons of cotton, cotton reserves amounted to about 8200000 tons of homework.
"Straight up" was interpreted as partial empty
Domestic cotton market this week will officially enter the 2014/2015, and the detailed rules for the implementation of the new Xinjiang cotton price target subsidies pilot has not been announced, the Bulls especially be very upset. It is reported, rumors current compared before more consistent, the new state of cotton subsidies is expected to be no lower limit, Zheng cotton under no policy support.
From the China cotton information network news, reflected from the side part details are emerging.
First of all, Xinjiang corps cotton subsidies for reference according to the output, the Xinjiang autonomous region is 60% according to the area, in accordance with the yield of 40%. Secondly, the amount of subsidies temporarily not set a clear upper limit argument, but the total amount of subsidies will calculate according to the yield of cotton. Once again, the bottom price, rumors have multiple versions. But most think that, in the process of market regulation Chinese home in order to improve the effectiveness of the policy, more inclined to let the market play a decisive role, in the allocation of resources to fluctuate in line with market conditions, the government will not easily early intervention in the market. Inside and outside mianjia difference and cotton farmers sell cotton to will become the government to consider the premise of hand. Fourth, during the period from September to November will be the target price subsidies during the recovery period of seed cotton price. It is understood, at present Chinese Cotton Association and related departments have already do layout work of price monitoring. Finally, the market rumors Xinjiang will be ginning factory authorized, authorized qualified enterprises can participate in the target price subsidies to purchase qualifications, farmers only get subsidies through authorized ginning factory sold to, cotton ginning factory requires the cotton into the supervision warehouse. The market is more concerned if ginning factory not in supervision warehouse directly to the cotton sold out, will affect the Xinjiang transportation subsidy application; in addition, countries or through some ways to encourage cotton ginners will cotton stored in the warehouse, but also by some measures to restrain the behavior of cotton ginning factory.
The spot market, from Shandong cotton enterprises related person in charge, at present, from Xinmian listed a large area is getting closer. And cotton storage cost high, poor quality, selling to form bright contrast is, the new cotton with its good quality, low price advantage is in favor of textile enterprises. Nevertheless, cotton reserves put transactions cautious characteristics, the same transmission to the market to buy a new aspect. In the cotton price prior to the announcement, the main cotton prices, cotton ginning factory, textile enterprises, cotton city generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, dare not rashly balance.
But there are also people said, whether direct subsidy rules exactly what kind of mode later released, is expected to have mutual support policy rules to improve the direct subsidy policy. In throwing storage after the end of the "vacuum", Zheng cotton disk may present the transient impulse, cotton related enterprises can real-time attention, to seize the right time to sell.
Editor's note: this year the state officially launched in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia Xinjiang soybean, cotton price target subsidies pilot, took the key ice pricing mechanism reform of agricultural products in China a step. It is understood, Guangxi and Yunnan in Hubei Province, the main producing areas of sugar, rapeseed, cotton and soybeans is expected to become the two kinds of agricultural products after the implementation of the target price subsidies pilot. At present, cotton, soybean mature soon, target price subsidies pilot specific implementation details but didn't fall to the ground, all kinds of rumors caused by uncertain factors in the dancing in the market, "the people did not know" turning to
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