截至周一收盘，郑棉期货主力152 0173 3840合约下跌345元至13905元/吨，跌幅高达2.42%，当日增仓42826手至44.7万手，成交量明显扩大。现货市场方面，9月1日中国棉花价格指数收报16987点，下跌5点。
光大期货分析师许爱霞表示，2014/2015年度**天，郑棉平开后大跌，主力152 0173 3840合约跌破14000元关口。新年度伊始，直补细则仍未公布，但关于细节已有传闻，传闻涉及新疆建设兵团和自治区的补贴基准产量、补贴额度的计算、价格的采集等，政策细节未公布，不确定性较大，加上目前国储超过千万吨的库存，使得目前的市场氛围偏空，加上资金的打压，郑棉短期仍维持弱势，但抛储停止，9月新棉尚未集中上市，阶段性的现货供应并不宽裕，短期现货价格的波动幅度要小于期价。
国内全棉纱价格维持弱势，部分规模厂家下调价格加大促销力度，整体出货无明显改善；近日北疆奎屯有少量
直补政策无疑是当前市场关注的焦点。国务院副总理汪洋日前在新疆考察调研农业农村工作时强调，开展棉花目标价格改革试点，是探索完善农产品价格形成机制、发挥市场配置资源作用的重大举措，要坚定改革信心，完善操作办法，精心组织实施，确保顺利推进。
上海中期分析师经琢成认为，郑棉昨日暴跌原因有几方面：一是当天盘中技术性破位14000元一线整数关口后出现技术性卖盘，盘中持仓量增仓近5万手，说明短期方向性选择向下。二是棉花价格加速市场化，随着新疆地区直补细则即将公布以及后期新棉上市预期减产11%，国内棉花与进口棉之间的价差在加速缩窄，盘面来看，主力152 0173 3840合约价格与1%配额关税内的价差已经缩窄至800-1500元，一旦内外棉价差趋向平水，外棉价格优势减弱，国内棉花需求会回升。
“从技术层面看，空单可继续持有。但从基本面看，当前主力合约152 0173 3840盘面价格的下跌空间会越来越有限，因此不建议空单长期持有，一旦右侧交易信号出现反而可以多单尝试介入。”经琢成说。
在一些业内人士看来，郑棉后期下跌空间可能有限。方正中期研究院蔡平霞表示，郑棉主力合约大幅下挫直破新低，直补政策细则公布在即，市场对政策理解整体偏空，但从成本及供需角度来看，假设收购籽棉价格为3.2元/斤，则皮棉加工成本到了14000元/吨；此外，8月底储备棉抛售结束后，企业棉花库存严重偏低，而新棉预计要到10月初才能上市，因此，9月国内或出现棉花供需阶段性紧张局面，预计后市郑棉继续下行空间不大。
郑商所盘后持仓报告显示，昨日郑棉期货前20名多头期货公司席位合计增持多单11507手至19.6万手，前20名空头席位增持空单15606手至19万手。
Yesterday, Zheng cotton futures once again fell sharply, the price hit a new low this round of adjustment, the positions and turnover soared. From the supply chain perspective, cotton spot market has continued to slump, resulting in the futures market atmosphere on the air, direct subsidy policy has become the focus of the details of the upcoming game.
As of Monday's close, Zheng cotton futures 152 0173 3840 main contract fell 345 yuan to 13905 yuan / ton, or as high as 2.42%, the day adds 42826 to 447000 hand in hand, trading volume significantly enlarged. The spot market, in September 1st China cotton price index closed at 16987 points, down 5 points.
Everbright futures analyst Xu Aixia said, the first day of the annual Zheng Mianping 2014/2015, after the crash, the 152 0173 3840 main contract fell below 14000 yuan mark. New Year beginning, direct subsidy rules have not been announced, but the details have been rumored, subsidies benchmark yield, the amount of subsidies that relates to the Xinjiang Construction Corps and the autonomous region, the calculation of price collection, policy details were not released, greater uncertainty, coupled with the current state of Chu in more than 10 million tons of inventory, so that the current market environment partial empty, add fund pressure, Zheng cotton short-term will stop, but throwing storage, September Xinmian has not yet listed on the spot, stage of the supply is not well-off, short-term spot price volatility than the price.
Domestic cotton price remain weak, part of the scale manufacturers cut prices increase sales promotion strength, overall shipments has no obvious improvement; recently in North Kuitun with a small amount of seed cotton picking, sell, purchase price 7-7.20 yuan / kg; and Akesu, Kashi V spend not picking on the city, also relatively sporadic, taking into account the seed cotton moisture large, low lint, cotton ginning factory price 6.8-7.3 yuan / kg.
The direct subsidy policy is undoubtedly the focus of attention of the market. Wang Yang, vice premier of the State Council recently in the investigation and study of Xinjiang agricultural and rural work emphasizes, the cotton price reform, is to explore the important measure to improve the agricultural products price formation mechanism, play the role of market allocation of resources, to firm faith in the reform, improve the operation, carefully organize the implementation, to ensure the smooth progress of.
Shanghai mid-term analyst the chisel that reason, Zheng cotton plummeted yesterday in a few aspects: one is the technical selloff day midday technical Powei line 14000 integer important passes, after nearly 50000 hand positions Zengcang, short-term direction choice down. Two is to accelerate the market price of cotton subsidies, with the area of Xinjiang is about to announce the details and later Xinmian listing is expected to yield 11%, between domestic and imported cotton, cotton price in accelerating constrictive, disk, spread 152 0173 3840 main contract price and tariff quotas within 1% has narrowed to 800-1500 yuan, once the mianjia difference inside and outside the trend of flat water, reduced foreign cotton price advantages, domestic cotton demand will rise again.
"From a technical perspective, one can continue to hold the air. But from the fundamentals, the current 152 0173 3840 main contract disk prices space will be more and more limited, so do not recommend empty single long-term holding, once the right trading signals appear instead of single try intervention." The cut into.
In some industry insiders, Zheng cotton late fall of space may be limited. Founder interim Research Institute Cai Pingxia said, Zheng cotton main contract fell straight to new lows, direct subsidy policy rules released soon, to understand the overall bearish market policy, but from the point of view of cost and supply and demand perspective, if the acquisition of seed cotton price for 3.2 yuan / Jin, the lint processing costs to 14000 yuan / ton; in addition, 8 at the end of the month to sell cotton reserves after the end, business inventories low, and the cotton is expected to be 10 month to be listed, therefore, in September the domestic or the emergence of cotton supply and demand stage tensions, market outlook is expected to continue downward space is Zheng cotton.
ZCE disk position report yesterday, Zheng cotton futures long before the 20 Futures Company seats total holdings of more than 11507 single to 196000 hand in hand, the top 20 seats short holdings empty single 15606 to 190000 hand in hand.
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