一、棉籽：价格以平稳为主 购销基本停滞
上周，随着新年度来临，棉籽价格以平稳为主，成交稀少，各方观望情绪浓郁。周末，部分棉产区毛籽价格：河北1.32-1.33元/斤附 近，山东1.33元/斤附近，河南1.32元/斤附近，晋陕地区1.29-1.30元/斤附近，新疆南疆1.16元/斤附近。本周国内棉籽收购价格大多平 稳，局部下跌，收购工作逐步停滞。目前压榨亏损仍严重，其中山东、河北地区油厂亏损近100元/吨，较上周继续扩大。受压榨亏损影响，油厂也陆续选择停 机，目前山东全省维持生产厂家不足10家，河北7-8家。且目前原料货源接近枯竭，油厂对原料已陆续停止采购，因此短线棉籽零星收购价继纽趋弱。今年
二、棉油：外围弱势行情拖累 价格延续跌势
上周，豆油、棕榈油弱势行情未改，不利棉油行情，加之库存高企，需求较弱，价格延续跌势。周末，部分地区棉油价格：河北5740元/吨附 近，山东5640元/吨附近，河南5800元/吨，晋陕地区5600-5650元/吨附近，新疆南疆4630元/吨。国内港口地区一级豆油主流价格 5750-5960元/吨，较上周涨跌10-80元/吨不等，目前较山东地区棉油价差已十分接近；24度棕榈油价格5200-5400元/吨，较上周跌 30-130元/吨，比三级棉油价格价差在340-540元/吨。长江中下游地区国产四级菜油出厂价稳定在7850-8000元/吨一线，较上周跌50元 /吨，沿海进口菜籽压榨的四级菜油价格在5700-5800元/吨，较上周跌50-100元/吨，继续拖累棉油行情。目前油脂市场“高库存，低需求”的格 局仍然维持，数据显示，截至29日，国内豆油商业库存总量132.64万吨，较上周同期的133.61万吨略降，较去年同期的105.36万吨增加 27.28万吨，增幅在为26%左右。国储菜油库存也在600多万吨以上，整体供大于求格局未变，且目前棉油与一级豆油价差已经收窄到200元/吨，比棕 油价格高200元/吨以上，性价比劣势明显，令下游对棉油采购意向偏低，观望情绪所谓有增无减，需求较弱，油厂对后市仍不看好，也纷纷降价销售。因此，市 场基本面持续利空，预计棉油或继续维持弱势下滑态势，而成本高企或限制其下行速度。
三、棉粕：利空因素仍占居主导 价格延续下跌走势
上周，豆粕现货滞涨回落，菜粕价格延续跌势，利空棉粕行情，价格延续下跌。周末，部分地区棉粕价格：河北40%蛋白2940元/吨附近， 山东40%蛋白2890元/吨附近，河南40%蛋白2840元/吨附近，晋陕地区40%蛋白2960-3120元/吨附近，新疆南疆42%蛋白2560元 /吨附近。利空因素：一是豆粕价格弱势下跌。受连盘下跌影响，现货承压回落。截至29日，沿海豆粕价格3410-3570元/吨，较上周跌10-50元 /吨，棉粕与豆粕价差仍在600元/吨，远低于1000元/吨的正常价差，在饲料方面仍无竞争优势，导致饲料厂已修改配方，增加豆粕用量，减少棉粕用量， 棉粕需求明下降，令其价格承压。二是菜粕价格续跌。目前市场需求不济，油厂及贸易商库存积压严重，现货承压下跌。目前菜粕价格已明显低于棉粕，为棉粕市场 构成不利影响，另外，今年高温天气较往年要短，水产养殖需求对棉粕不如往年，步入9月中旬以后，鱼类投料减少，水产消费进入淡季，届时，需求将更少，不利 其行情。因此，市场预计棉粕行情或在2400-2800元/吨区间振荡。
四、棉短绒：行情整体弱平 市场询价略增
上周，棉短绒市场整体缓慢回暖，市场成交仍不多，价格整体平稳。周末，部分地区棉短绒价格：河北2990元/吨附近，山东3030元/吨 附近，河南2850元/吨附近，晋陕地区2900-2920元/吨附近，新疆南疆2800元/吨附近。国内棉花库存庞大，压制棉短绒行情。另外，国内环境 污染严重，政府查处*严，部分企业处于停产整顿阶段，且精制棉销售不畅，厂家经营也艰难，继续压制行情。但是目前棉短绒产量低，而且价格长期处于历史低位 区，油厂挺价意愿较高，对其形成支撑，预计棉短绒或继续稳中弱势运行。
五、棉壳：市场供需偏紧 行情继续上涨
上周，棉壳产出量偏低，市场迎来需求旺季，价格继续上涨。周末，部分地区棉壳价格：河北1860元/吨附近，山东1890元/吨附近，河 南2030元/吨附近，晋陕地区1790-1800元/吨附近，新疆南疆1200元/吨。目前油厂开机率*低，棉壳产出稀少，导致油厂提价补亏意愿较强， 棉壳价格继续上涨。但是目前由于玉米芯价格较低，种植户使用玉米芯替代棉壳，限制其上涨空间，但是在市场需求旺季之下，产出少需求大，将继续推动价格上 行。
From August 25, 2014 to August 29th a week, at present domestic bean market there is still demand gap, and oil procurement more cautious, short-term trend of price dilemma. As of Friday (29 days), Dalian disk soybean 152 0173 3840 main contract closed at 4583 yuan / ton, week rose 71 yuan / ton. Grease, this week in Dalian disc oil futures have risen, but the gains are modest, as of Friday (29 days), Dalian disk soybean oil main 152 0173 3840 contract closed 6058 yuan / ton, week rose 28 yuan / ton, Dalian disc palm oil 152 0173 3840 main contract closed at 5138 yuan / ton, week rose 28 yuan / ton, the current the rate of domestic oil spot boost the role of limited, week domestic oil spot vulnerable has not changed. Meal, soybean fall apart by the impact of domestic soybean meal, even the disc also follow down, as of Friday (29 days), Dalian disk soybean meal 152 0173 3840 main contract closed at 3253 yuan / ton, the week down 28 yuan / ton, the futures market, the domestic soybean meal spot pressure drop. Subject to external influence, this week, cotton purchase prices are stable, the purchase and sale of local fell, the basic stagnation, the market waiting for the next year; cottonseed oil continue down trend, along with the New Year approaching, the wait-and-see sentiment strong, clinch a deal is poor; cottonseed meal prices continue to decline, manufacturers of goods greater pressure, market sentiment is pessimistic; cotton linter most stable, local fell slightly, the downstream inquiry continues to increase; cotton shell prices continue rising trend, the peak season demand, market supply, prices continue to remain strong possibility.
A, cottonseed: price in order to smooth the main purchase basic stagnation
Last week, along with the New Year approaching, cotton prices to a smooth, the scarcity of transactions, the parties wait-and-see sentiment strong. Over the weekend, part hair seed cotton producing areas of price: 1.32-1.33 yuan / Jin near Hebei, Shandong 1.33 yuan / Jin near, near Henan 1.32 yuan / Jin, Jin Shan area near 1.29-1.30 yuan / Jin, South Xinjiang 1.16 yuan / Jin near. Domestic cotton purchase price this week, most stable, partial fell, acquisition work gradually stagnation. At present the press loss is still serious, of which Shandong, Hebei area oil loss of nearly 100 yuan / ton, compared with last week to continue to expand. By crushing losses, mill also choose stop, at present Shandong province maintain manufacturers insufficiency 10, Hebei 7-8. And now the raw material supply nearly exhausted, mill for raw materials has been stopped buying, so the short-term cottonseed sporadic purchase price following new weakening. This year's cotton subsidies policy rules has not yet been introduced, cotton ginning factory temporary also dare not to purchase materials, general wait-and-see. In addition, this year is expected to Xinjiang cottonseed listed time will delay, and the cotton acreage decreased by about 15%, cotton production will be decreased significantly compared with last year, will restrain the cottonseed prices sharply lower, expected cottonseed market goods vulnerable.
Two, the cotton: peripheral weak market dragged down the prices continue to decline
Last week, soybean oil, palm oil and weak market has not changed, unfavorable cottonseed oil prices, coupled with the high inventory, demand is weak, prices continue to decline. Over the weekend, the cotton prices in parts: Hebei near the 5740 yuan / ton, Shandong 5640 yuan / ton in the vicinity, Henan 5800 yuan / ton, Shanxi Shaanxi 5600-5650 yuan / ton near the region, South Xinjiang 4630 yuan / ton. The port area of soybean oil domestic mainstream price 5750-5960 yuan / ton, compared with last week's price 10-80 yuan / ton, the Shandong area oil spreads have very close; 24 degrees of palm oil price 5200-5400 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 30-130 yuan / ton, more than three oil price price in the 340-540 yuan / ton. Domestic four levels of rapeseed oil in the lower reaches of Yangtze River ex factory price stability in the 7850-8000 yuan / ton, relatively drop last week 50 yuan / ton, coastal import rapeseed crushing four vegetable oil prices in the 5700-5800 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 50-100 yuan / ton, continue to drag down the market. The current oil market "high inventory, low demand" pattern still maintain, data display, as of 29, the domestic soybean oil inventories totaled 1326400 tons, compared with the same period last week's 1336100 tons reduced slightly, compared with the same period last year increased by 1053600 tons to 272800 tons, an increase in about 26%. The reservoir oil inventory is more than about 6000000 tons, the overall oversupply situation has not changed, and the current level of cottonseed oil and soybean oil spreads have narrowed to 200 yuan / ton, palm oil prices higher than 200 yuan / ton, price on the low side has obvious disadvantages, downstream cotton purchase intent, the wait-and-see mood of so-called unabated, demand is weak, factory is still not optimistic about the market outlook, have sale. Therefore, the market fundamentals continue to bad, is expected to remain weak in cottonseed oil or declining trend, but the high cost or limit its downlink speed.
Three, cottonseed meal: bad factors still dominant prices continue the trend of decline
Last week, soybean meal spot stagflation fall, rapeseed meal prices continue to decline, the bad meal prices, prices continue to fall. Over the weekend, cottonseed meal prices in parts of Hebei: 40% protein near the 2940 yuan / ton, Shandong 40% protein near the 2890 yuan / ton, Henan 40% protein near the 2840 yuan / ton, Jin Shan area of 40% protein 2960-3120 yuan / ton near South Xinjiang 42% protein, 2560 yuan / ton near. The bad factors: one is the decline in soybean meal prices vulnerable. The pan down the impact of pressure drop, the spot. As of 29, coastal soybean meal price 3410-3570 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 10-50 yuan / ton, cottonseed meal and soybean meal price is 600 yuan / ton, much lower than 1000 yuan / tons of normal price, in the feed is still no competitive advantage, leading to feed factory modified formula, increased soybean meal consumption, reduce the amount of cotton meal, cottonseed meal demand decreased significantly, so the price pressure. Two rapeseed meal prices continued to fall. The current market demand weakness, refinery and traders overstock, spot pressure drop. At present, rapeseed meal prices have been significantly below the cottonseed meal, cottonseed meal as the market adversely, in addition
