储备棉投放结束山东河北零星采摘

百检网 2021-12-15
     一、 市场综述

  储备棉投放结束,累计上市总量152 0173 3840.89万吨,累计总成交265.40万吨。上周河北、山东棉区有农民开始零星采摘新棉,从目前情况来看, 新棉质量较好。上周中国棉花价格指数CC Index 3128B周均价16996元/吨,较前一周下降53元。近期外棉价格受纺织厂买盘支撑略有反弹,但国内人民币报价仍小幅下跌。

  二、市场动态

  1、储备棉投放:累计总成交265万吨

  储备棉投放*后一周成交9.38万吨,较前一周增加0.62万吨。虽然距离新棉上市仍有一段时间,但企业并没有明显增加竞拍量,据了解,企业为 避免风险仍不敢增加库存,有企业表示库存能维持到新棉上市,但更多企业表示会采用压缩产能,增加使用外棉或者使用化纤替代品等方式来维持生产到新棉上市。

  截止到8月29日,储备棉投放累计上市总量152 0173 3840.89万吨,累计成交总量265.40万吨,成交比例20.25%。其中,国产棉累计上市 1231.62万吨,累计成交249.14万吨,成交比例20.23%。进口棉累计上市79.28万吨,累计成交16.26万吨,成交比例20.51%。

  2、现货挂牌交易:均价涨跌不一 轧花厂观望情绪较重

  当周现货挂牌交易周成交130670吨,较前一周增加58700吨,成交放量。其中MA1411、MA1412以及MA1502成交较好,其余 合同相对清淡。截止上周订货量27110吨,较前一周增加1920吨, 其中MA1501为主要订货合同,订货13850吨,此外,MA1412订货7670吨。截止上周现货挂牌交易业务棉数量15671吨,较前一周增加 1960吨。

  从价格上看,当周现货挂牌交易各合同涨跌不一,其中MA1409周末收盘价涨125至16645,MA1410跌235至15185,MA1411跌110至14500,其余合同变化不大。

  本周直补细则仍未公布,目前市场观望情绪较重,轧花厂普遍决定在9月中下旬开始收购,新棉上市进度要较往年推迟。

  3、现货市场:河北、山东已有采摘

  山东德州地区新棉8月15日开始吐絮,较往年提前5天左右,如后期无连续阴雨天气,棉花的质量和产量情况较为乐观。目前当地已有棉农零星采摘。 河北近期天气良好,邢台、沧州、冀州等地棉农也开始少量采摘。有企业表示近期将开秤小批量收购、试轧,同时看看现货市场情况如何。

  相对内地,新疆棉花成熟略晚,目前未有采摘。近日南疆阿克苏等地的一些农业部门、种子公司技术人员纷纷到沙雅、阿瓦提、新和、柯坪等地棉区测 产,预计一周左右结束。目前看来,阿克苏、喀什等地大部分棉区棉花长势与去年持平甚至稍好,如果9-10月下旬前不出现大的天气灾害,农民丰收的预期较 强。

  4、纺织市场:纯棉纱市场无起色 我国进口越南棉纱增多

  上周纯棉纱整体价格仍较低沉,大部分尽力保价维稳,但规模厂家不断下调价格,抛货清理库存,市场无明显起色。但是有企业反应,在宁波一带,部分 规格棉纱货源较少,甚至有部分加价现象。8月29日中国纱线价格指数CY Index OEC10S为15680元/吨,CY Index C32S为24425元/吨,CY Index JC40S为29090元/吨。

  这半年来中国进口棉纱市场的格局也发生了明显变动,7月份,对越南棉纱进口量超越印度成为中国进口纱第二大来源国,进口量达3.43万吨,占中 国进口棉纱总量的22%。之前印巴两国棉纱平分天下的日子也变成了印巴越三分天下。进口棉本周询盘继续好转,8月29日进口棉纱价格指数FCY Index C21S港口提货价21085元/吨,FCY Index C32S港口提货价23380元/吨,FCY Index JC32S港口提货价25590元/吨。

  5、国际市场:期棉反弹受阻 印度棉全额通关量增加

  上周ICE期棉反弹受阻,新年度供应宽松格局基本形成,美国干热的南部将迎来降雨,这将缓解市场对干燥天气的担忧,同时印度季风带来了更多的降 雨有利于棉花生长,虽然新一期美棉出口销售数据利好,周四期棉价格承压下挫。至8月13日,印度种植面积在1.84亿亩。同比增加9.77%。至8月26 日美棉新花坐果率为90%,吐絮率19%。8.15-8.21一周美国净签约出口本年度陆地棉56177吨;装运21931吨。

  近期外棉价格受低价纺织厂买盘支撑从62美分反弹到66美分,但是国内棉价一直处于偏弱状态,国内大型棉商美金报价反弹,配额价值下滑,而且价 格继续下落趋势,国内人民币报价继续小幅下跌,尤其印度棉40%通关量加大。印度棉中期花一般质量的价格为16300元/吨左右,质量较好的价格在 16600-16700元/吨。

  三、宏观要闻

  1、1-7月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额33491.6亿元,同比增长11.7%,增速比1-6月份提高0.3个百分点;实现主营活动利润31257.4亿元,同比增长11.2%,增速比1-6月份提高0.4个百分点。

  7月份,规模以上工业企业实现利润总额4823.3亿元,同比增长13.5%,增速比6月份回落4.4个百分点。

  1-7月份,在41个工业大类行业中,34个行业利润总额同比增长,3个行业持平,4个行业下降。其中纺织业增长10.4%。


One, market overview

Cotton reserves put an end, has listed a total of 152 0173 38408900 tons, the total turnover of 2654000 tons. Last week Hebei, Shandong cotton farmers began sporadic picking cotton, from the current situation, the new cotton quality is better. Last week China cotton price index CC Index 3128B week the average price of 16996 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week, down 53 yuan. The cotton textile factory price by buying support rebounded slightly, but the domestic currency price is still slightly lower.

Two, the market dynamics

1, cotton reserves put: total turnover of 2650000 tons

Cotton reserves put last week sold 93800 tons, an increase over the previous week 6200 tons. Although the distance Xinmian listed still have a period of time, but the enterprise did not significantly increase the amount of the auction, it is understood, the enterprise in order to avoid risk is not increased inventory, the enterprise that inventory can maintain Xinmian listed, but more enterprises will use compression capacity, increase the use of cotton or chemical fiber substitutes to maintain production to the listing of new cotton.

By the end of August 29th, the cumulative total market cotton reserves put 152 0173 38408900 tons, accumulative total turnover 2654000 tons, turnover ratio of 20.25%. Among them, domestic cotton has listed 12316200 tons, the cumulative turnover 2491400 tons, turnover ratio of 20.23%. Imported cotton has listed 792800 tons, the cumulative turnover 162600 tons, turnover ratio of 20.51%.

2, spot transactions fold rise: not a gin wait-and-see mood is heavy

When the week spot trading week sold 130670 tons, an increase over the previous week 58700 tons, the transaction volume. The MA1411, MA1412 and MA1502 were better, the rest of the contract relative light. By the end of last week the order quantity of 27110 tons, a 1920 increase over the previous week tons, and MA1501 is the main contract, order 13850 tons 7670 tons, in addition, MA1412. By the end of last week the spot listing of transactions cotton 15671 tons, an increase over the previous week 1960 tons.

From the price point of view, when the week spot transactions the contract price is not a weekend, the MA1409 closing price 125 to 16645, MA1410 fell 235 to 15185, MA1411 fell 110 to 14500, the rest of the contract change.

This week the direct subsidy rules have not been announced, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, cotton ginning factory generally decided to purchase in the mid to late 9, Xinmian listed schedule to relatively in former years later.

3, the spot market: Hebei, Shandong has been picking

Shandong Dezhou area began in August 15th compared with the previous year cotton boll, 5 days in advance, such as the late without continuous overcast and rainy weather, quality and yield of cotton is more optimistic. At present, the local has been sporadic picking cotton. Hebei's recent good weather, Xingtai, Cangzhou, Jizhou and other places also started a small cotton picking. Enterprise has said it will begin business acquisition, small batch trial rolling, at the same time, have a look how to spot market situation.

Compared with the mainland, Xinjiang cotton mature late, at present no picking. Recently in Akesu to some agricultural sector, The Seed Company and technical personnel have to Shaya, Awati, and the new, and cotton yield, expected a week end. Currently, Akesu, Kashi and other places most cotton growing flat with last year even slightly better, if there are no major weather disasters 9-10 month ago, farmers harvest expected a strong.

4, the textile market: pure cotton yarn market no improvement in China increased Vietnam imports cotton yarn

Last week, pure cotton yarn overall price is still low, most try to price stability, but the scale manufacturers continue to cut prices, goods market clearing inventory, no significant improvement. But the enterprise response, in the Ningbo area, some specifications of cotton goods less, even some increase phenomenon. In August 29th China yarn price index CY Index OEC10S for 15680 yuan / ton, CY Index C32S is 24425 yuan / ton, CY Index JC40S for 29090 yuan / ton.

In the first half of this year to China imported cotton market structure has also undergone a significant change, in July, the Vietnam cotton yarn imports beyond India to become the second largest source country Chinese import yarn, the import volume of 34300 tons, accounting for 22% of the total import of cotton yarn. Before India and Pakistan cotton shared world day has become more of the three parts of India and pakistan. The import of cotton this week inquiry continues to improve, in August 29th imports of cotton price index FCY Index C21S port delivery price of 21085 yuan / ton, FCY Index C32S port delivery price of 23380 yuan / ton, FCY Index JC32S port delivery price of 25590 yuan / ton.

5, the international market: cotton futures rebounded blocked India Cotton Full clearance volume increased

Last week ICE period cotton rebounded blocked, the new annual supply loose pattern is formed basically, USA dry South will usher in rainfall, which will ease the fears of dry weather, while India monsoon brought more rain is conducive to the growth of cotton, although a new US cotton export sales data is good, Thursday cotton price pressure fell. To August 13th, planting area of 184000000 acres in India. An increase of 9.77%. In August 26 the new cotton flowering and fruit setting rate is 90%, boll opening rate 19%. 8.15-8.21 a week USA net signed this year cotton export shipment of 21931 tons of 56177 tons.

The cotton price by buying support low-cost textile factory from 62 cents to 66 cents a rebound, but the domestic cotton prices has been in a weak state, domestic dollar large cotton bidding rebound, quota to decline in value, and the price continues to fall, domestic prices in Renminbi continued to decline slightly, especially India cotton 40% clearance volume increased. The mid India cotton flower quality for the price of 16300 yuan / tons, quality good price in the 16600-16700 yuan / ton.

Three, the macro news

1, 1-7 month, the above scale industrial enterprises realized profits

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