为保障目标价格改革试点顺利推进，保持新棉上市后市场平稳运行，国家将采取四项综合措施加强市场调控。一是新棉上市后停止储备棉投放，为新棉购销创造良好市场条件。二是做好新棉收购工作，引导企业和农民积*购销。三是妥善安排进口，鼓励企业多使用国产棉。四是制定托底预案，当国内市场
“今年国内棉花收储政策退市，加上美棉丰产，国内外棉价年初以来竞相走低。而进入9月以后，新棉目标价格直补细则仍未见正式公告，市场因此出现了诸多传闻，相关消息更是满天飞扬。”道通期货棉花**研究员苗玲告诉期货日报记者，为了宣传以及更好地贯彻目标价格直补政策，帮助市场正确理解棉市新政策，引导市场理顺政策实施后的各方关系，相关部门已经积*地在各地进行了讲演，引导棉农积*售棉，让棉农意识到棉价跌多少政府会补多少。
苗玲分析道，受此影响，加上市场预
在郑棉各合约中，11月合约距离新棉上市*近，因此对政策变动*为敏感。9月3日，国家发改委发文，为保障目标价格改革试点顺利推进，保持新棉上市后市场平稳运行，国家将采取四项综合措施加强市场调控。
“在以上四项市场调控措施中，*大的亮点是‘托底预案’，因为在此之前市场一直对这一问题充满了猜测，政府确定有托底收购预案，这意味着棉价不可能无止境地跌下去。这将对市场价格、市场心理等产生较大影响。”苗玲说，综合措施公布后的当日郑棉期价即出现大幅上涨，尤其11月合约期价涨幅较大。
不过，国家发改委并未明确政府在什么价位入市托底，所以市场要理性对待与理解“托底预案”这项政策。与此同时，在政府要实施的四项市场调控措施中，提及要妥善安排进口，业内人士认为，其中的含义是调控配额资源，进口棉价或将受此拖累走低，国内棉价会向市场化顺利过渡，国内外棉价联动将成为必然。
东亚期货棉花分析师许亮认为，新棉上市时间已经临近，棉花目标价格政策改革的各项细则将陆续出台，政策对棉价的影响日益明朗，随着“托底预案”等市场调控措施的公布，估计新棉价格不会因陈棉结转库存仍然过高而继续走低，预计新棉价格跌破152 0173 3840元/吨的的概率较小。
目前，国内棉市结转库存偏高，但绝大部分集中在政府手里。新棉上市后，在国储棉暂停抛售的情况下，加上政府对进口棉花资源的合理调控，国内棉市的供应压力可能没有市场此前预期的那么大。如果新棉上市后棉农惜售，那么短期内供应压力还会进一步减弱。此外，棉花目标价格的直补均价以9—11月的市场成交均价为基准，这可能会加剧棉农惜售的心理。
据记者了解，近日国内棉价和进口棉成本之间的价差在缩小，再考虑到国内纺织企业棉花库存较低的现状，国内棉市因目标价格政策实施所出现的市场回归行情可能已接近尾声。另据了解，农发行已为今年新棉收购准备的600亿元资金，将继续发挥棉花收购资金供应主渠道的作用。转载请注明来自中国百检网棉花网
In order to ensure the smooth progress of the pilot target price reform, maintain Xinmian listed after the smooth operation of the market, the state will take four measures to strengthen market regulation. One is the Xinmian listed after the cessation of cotton reserves put, creating a good market conditions for the purchase and sale of cotton. Two is to do a good job in the acquisition of new work, guide enterprises and farmers to purchase and sale. Three is to properly arrange import, encourage enterprises to use more domestic cotton. Four is the development support plan, when the domestic market price of cotton fell over, "difficult to sell", will take the necessary measures to encourage enterprises to purchase, to stabilize the market, to solve the problem of "difficult to sell".
"Domestic cotton Shouchu policy exit this year, plus the United States cotton high yield, both at home and abroad since beginning to lower prices. But after entering in September, Xinmian target price subsidies rules are still no formal announcement, the market there are many rumors, related news is all over the sky flying." The senior researcher Miao Ling told futures cotton futures Daily reporter, in order to promote and better implement the target price subsidy policy, helping the market to correctly understand the cotton city new policy, guide the market to straighten out the policy after the implementation of the relationship between the parties, the relevant departments have been actively conducted around the speech, to guide farmers to actively sell cotton, cotton farmers realize cotton prices fell much government can fill how many.
Miao Ling analysis, affected by this, coupled with the market price of cotton in the target price policy under the guidance of the market is expected to accelerate, Zheng cotton price of the contract period September daily average of 1 appear larger decline, in January and May the contract price fell below 152 0173 3840 yuan / ton mark integer, in recent months November contract price of maximal amplitude.
In Zheng cotton each contract, the November contract distance Xinmian listed recently, so the policy change is the most sensitive. In September 3rd, the national development and Reform Commission issued a document, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the pilot target price reform, maintain Xinmian listed after the smooth operation of the market, the state will take four measures to strengthen market regulation.
"In more than four of the market regulation and control measures, the biggest bright spot is the 'backing plans', because before the market has been on this issue is full of speculation, the government determine the support purchase plan, which means that prices may not endless fall. This will have a greater impact on the market price, the market psychology." Miao Ling said, the comprehensive measures after the publication of the Zheng Mianqi price is rising sharply, especially the November contract price increase larger.
However, the national development and Reform Commission did not clear the government in what price market support, so the market rational treatment and understanding "support plan" this policy. At the same time, in the four market government regulation and control measures to implement, mention should properly arrange the import, the personage inside course of study thinks, the meaning is the regulation of quota resources, import prices or will this hit, domestic cotton prices will smooth the transition to the market, domestic and international cotton price linkage will become inevitable.
East Asian cotton futures analyst Xu Liang thinks, Xinmian listed time is approaching, the rules for the reform of cotton target price policy will be introduced, the policy impact on the price of cotton is increasingly clear, with "announced measures to regulate and control the market support plan", estimated price will not because of Chen cotton nucotn carryout remains too high and continues to decline, cotton is expected prices below 152 0173 3840 yuan / ton of small probability.
At present, domestic cotton city carryover is high, but most concentrated in the hands of the government. The new cotton after the listing, in the cotton storage suspended selling situation, together with the government's reasonable regulation of imported cotton resources, domestic cotton market supply pressure may not have the market had expected so much. If the listing of new cotton farmers sell after, so the short-term supply pressure will weaken further. In addition, the target price of cotton subsidies fold to 9 - November market transactions fold as the benchmark, which may exacerbate the cotton trading psychological.
Understand according to the reporter, recently between domestic and imported cotton, cotton prices cost spreads are narrow, and considering the status of cotton inventory low domestic textile enterprises, domestic cotton city with the target price policy implementation of the market the market return may be nearing completion. It is understood, farming issue for 6400-101-7153 yuan of funds this year cotton to cotton, will continue to play the role of the main channel of funds supply. Reprinted from Chinese downwind cotton network www.baijiantest.com
